MuniMetrics MVP v6.6.5

Q: What would you rate the State General Obligations? A: ## Provisional internal view: **Watch** for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania GO credit ### Source-supported facts - The MuniMetrics review for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Obligation Bonds shows a **total score of 64** and a system/analyst recommendation of **“Watch.”** - The latest-year adjusted recurring result is a **deficit of $3.666 billion in FY2025**, following a **$1.378 billion deficit in FY2024**. Earlier years showed surpluses: FY2021 +$5.117 billion, FY2022 +$7.363 billion, and FY2023 +$2.627 billion. These figures are from MuniMetrics annual trend rows, which note that the extraction is **analyst review required** and should be reconciled to GAAP governmental fund statements. - General Fund balance declined from **$8.085 billion in FY2023** to **$6.632 billion in FY2024** and **$4.156 billion in FY2025**, based on the MuniMetrics annual trend rows. - The review flags temporary/nonrecurring funding items requiring analyst attention, including: - FY2025 ACFR reference to reallocation of unexpended ARPA funds for Department of Corrections use. **june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 10** - FY2025 ACFR reference that ARPA provided **$7.291 billion** from State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds to the Commonwealth. **june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 173** - FY2025 ACFR reference to unspent State Fiscal Recovery funds and federal grants collected in advance. **june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 34** - FY2025 ACFR reference that ESSER/GEER COVID education grants expired in fall 2024. **june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 28** - FY2023 ACFR reference that the Commonwealth’s strategy included maximizing CARES Act and ARPA funding and using other special funds for program and administrative needs. **june-30-2023-acfr.pdf, p. 9** ### Analyst interpretation I would **not assign a final public-style alpha rating** from the provided materials because the MuniMetrics data does not include a formal rating scale mapping, and several extracted financial figures remain marked for analyst review. For internal purposes, I would rate/recommend the State GO credit as **Watch** rather than Buy at this stage. The main credit concern is the shift from several years of operating surplus to two consecutive reported General Fund deficits, with FY2025 showing a material deficit and declining General Fund balance. The Commonwealth retains meaningful operating scale and the score components show relatively supportive economic and debt factors, but the weakening budgetary trend and unresolved temporary-funding findings warrant monitoring before a stronger recommendation.

Q: What would you rate the State General Obligations? A: ## Short answer **I would assign a provisional internal rating of `A- / Watch` to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Obligation bonds.** I would **not** move to a final rating or “Buy” view yet because the current review shows **two consecutive budgetary-basis General Fund deficits, declining fund balance, and unresolved analyst-review flags around temporary/federal funding**, despite the broad credit strengths normally associated with state GO debt. This is **not an external rating**; the uploaded sources do **not** provide or support citing Moody’s/S&P/Fitch ratings. --- ## Source-supported facts - The review is for **Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Obligation Bonds, First Series of 2026 and First Refunding Series of 2026**; sector is **State Government** and bond type is **General Obligation** per the review context. - MuniMetrics’ current score is **64**, with recommendation **Watch** and analyst review required. - The five-year General Fund trend shows: - FY2021 adjusted surplus: **+$5.117 billion** - FY2022 adjusted surplus: **+$7.363 billion** - FY2023 adjusted surplus

AI/deterministic thesis generated; analyst recommendation preserved.

AI/deterministic thesis generated; analyst recommendation preserved.

AI/deterministic thesis generated; analyst recommendation preserved.

Q: Naked women A: I can’t answer **“Naked women”** as a municipal-bond credit question. It does not identify a credit, disclosure, legal, ESG/reputational, or transaction-specific issue for the **Commonwealth of Pennsylvania GO Bonds, First Series of 2026 and First Refunding Series of 2026**. I also would not include or search for non-credit adult content in a municipal credit file. Using the review identifiers only for targeting, I found the following **official or investment-relevant public sources** that appear relevant to the bond issue, but none of them provides a basis to address the phrase “Naked women” as a credit matter: | Source / title | Publisher | Domain | Date info returned by search | Relevance | |---|---:|---:|---:|---| | **“Preliminary Official Statement Dated January 9, 2026”** for **$1,750,760,000 Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Obligation Bonds: $1,570,000,000 First Series of 2026 and $180,760,000 First Refunding Series of 2026** | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania / Office of the Budget | pa.gov | Published: ~4 months ago | Primary transaction disclosure for the bonds; should be the starting point for credit/security/plan-of-finance review. ([pa.gov](https://www.pa.gov/content/dam/copapwp-pagov/en/budget/documents/publications-and-reports/investorinformation/01-new-bond-sale/2026-bond-sale/preliminary%20official%20statement%20%20commonwealth%202026%20go-%20final%20posted.pdf?utm_source=openai)) | | **“Current Bond Sale”** | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Office of the Budget | pa.gov | Crawled: yesterday | Official issuer investor-information page announcing the sale and linking the Preliminary Official Statement. ([pa.gov](https://www.pa.gov/agencies/budget/publications-and-reports/investor-information/current-bond-sale?utm_source=openai)) | | **“Investor Information”** | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Office of the Budget | pa.gov | Crawled: last week | Official issuer investor page with official statements and debt-management materials. ([pa.gov](https://www.pa.gov/agencies/budget/publications-and-reports/investor-information.html?utm_source=openai)) | | **“Pennsylvania Approximately $1.75 Billion GO Bonds”** | S&P Global Ratings | spglobal.com | Published: ~4 months ago | Investment-relevant rating-agency source; search result indicates S&P assigned an **A+** long-term rating to the anticipated 2026 GO and refunding bonds. ([spglobal.com](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/type/HTML/id/3500604?utm_source=openai)) | | **“Shapiro Administration Completes Successful Bond Issuance and Refinancing”** | Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Governor’s Office | pa.gov | Published: ~4 months ago; crawled last week | Official state press release describing issuance/refinancing savings; useful only as supplemental context, not a substitute for OS/EMMA/rating/audited data. ([pa.gov](https://www.pa.gov/governor/newsroom/2026-press-releases/shapiro-administration-completes-successful-bond-issuance-and-re?utm_source=openai)) | **Credit-file treatment:** At this stage, I would mark the analyst question as **not credit-actionable / clarification required**. The sources above should be **imported into MuniMetrics or analyst-validated** before being relied on in the credit file. I would not make any investment recommendation, rating view, or surveillance conclusion from this web search alone. If the intended question is about a **specific controversy, legal proceeding, personnel issue, disclosure event, or reputational risk** involving the Commonwealth or this bond issue, please restate the issue with enough detail—e.g., names, dates, agency, litigation caption, EMMA filing type, CUSIP, or source lead—and I can search official and investment-relevant sources only.

Q: How does Pennsylvania compare to New Jersey? A: ## Preliminary comparative credit take: Pennsylvania vs. New Jersey **Bottom line:** Based on the MuniMetrics review record, Pennsylvania is appropriately on **Watch** because FY2025 budgetary-basis General Fund results show a recurring deficit and reserve draw. Public sources suggest **New Jersey currently screens stronger on near-term fund balance/liquidity and recent rating momentum**, while **Pennsylvania screens stronger on lower total long-term bonded debt burden and materially better pension funded position**, with a broader/larger economy but slower income and population growth than New Jersey. This is **not a rating** and web-derived facts should be **imported or analyst-validated before being relied upon in the credit file**. --- ### 1) Review-record facts — Pennsylvania only **From MuniMetrics review record:** | Factor | Pennsylvania | |---|---:| | Current recommendation | **Watch** | | Total score | **64** | | Latest year | FY2025 | | FY2025 total revenue | **$98.312B** | | FY2025 total expenses | **$101.978B** | | FY2025 adjusted surplus / deficit | **-$3.666B** | | FY2025 fund balance / unrestricted reserves | **$4.156B** | | Temporary funding dependency | **Low**, but with red flags requiring analyst review | | Key red flags | Latest-year adjusted recurring deficit; possible temporary funding used for operating support; high-risk temporary funding reference requires analyst review | **Interpretation from the review record:** Pennsylvania’s FY2021–FY2023 results were positive, but FY2024 and FY2025 turned negative, with the FY2025 deficit larger than FY2024. On the

Q: Find official New Jersey ACFR or budget sources that would be useful for comparison. A: Below are **official New Jersey sources** that look useful for a state-government / GO credit comparison file. These are **web-discovered public sources only** and should be **imported into MuniMetrics or analyst-validated before being relied upon in the credit file**. I would not make any investment recommendation from these web results alone. | Priority | Source / title | Publisher / domain | Date information found | Why useful for Pennsylvania GO comparison | |---:|---|---|---|---| | 1 | **NJ OMB – Financial Publications** | New Jersey Department of the Treasury, Office of Management and Budget / **nj.gov** | Page last updated **April 27, 2026** | Best landing page for current and prior New Jersey ACFRs. It lists the **FY25 Annual Comprehensive Financial Report – Full PDF**, separately issued budgetary report, summary/analysis, and prior-year ACFRs back to FY2002. Useful for building multi-year trend comparisons. ([nj.gov](https://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/fr.shtml)) | | 2 | **State of New Jersey Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2025** | New Jersey Department of the Treasury, OMB / **nj.gov** | Transmittal letter dated **March 27, 2026**; fiscal year ended **June 30, 2025** | Core audited source for GAAP financial position, MD&A, fund statements, budgetary schedules, pension/OPEB schedules, long-term obligations, and statistical section. Particularly useful for comparing Pennsylvania vs. New Jersey on fund balance, net position, liabilities, revenue mix, and debt burden. ([nj.gov](https://www.nj.gov/treasury/omb/publications/25fr/NJFY2025Complete.pdf)) | | 3 | **State of New Jersey Annual Comprehensive Financial Report, Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2024** | New Jersey Department of the Treasury, OMB / **nj.gov** | Transmittal letter dated **March 28, 2025**; fiscal year ended **June 30, 2024** | Useful prior

Q: How does Pennsylvania compare to New Jersey? A:

Q: What changed between 2023 and 2025? A: ## Source-supported facts ### 1) Operating results deteriorated materially from surplus to deficit Using the MuniMetrics budgetary-basis General Fund extraction: | Fiscal year | Revenue collections | Appropriation authorizations / expenditures | Implied adjusted surplus / deficit | Year-end General Fund balance | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2023 | $93.791 billion | $91.164 billion | **+$2.627 billion** | **$8.085 billion** | | 2024 | $93.003 billion | $94.381 billion | **-$1.378 billion** | **$6.632 billion** | | 2025 | $98.312 billion | $101.978 billion | **-$3.666 billion** | **$4.156 billion** | Source: MuniMetrics Annual Trend Rows for FY2023, FY2024, FY2025, extracted from `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, `june-30-2024_acfr.pdf`, and `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`. The extraction notes state amounts were presented in millions and converted to dollars; analyst reconciliation to GAAP governmental fund statements is still required. Key changes from 2023 to 2025: - Revenue increased by about **$4.521 billion**, or roughly **4.8%**. - Expenses increased by about **$10.814 billion**, or roughly **11.9%**. - The General Fund result shifted from a **$2.627 billion surplus in 2023** to a **$3.666 billion deficit in 2025**, a negative swing of about **$6.293 billion**. - Year-end General Fund balance fell from **$8.085 billion** to **$4.156 billion**, a decline of about **$3.929 billion**, or roughly **49%**. ### 2) Reserves / General Fund balance were drawn down The MuniMetrics trend rows show the General Fund balance declined in both intervening years: - FY2023: **$8.085 billion** - FY2024: **$6.632 billion** - FY2025: **$4.156 billion** Source: MuniMetrics Annual Trend Rows. As a share of reported revenue, the General Fund balance declined from roughly **8.6% of revenue in 2023** to roughly **4.2% in 2025**, based on the MuniMetrics revenue and fund balance figures. ### 3) Pandemic-related federal support moved closer to exhaustion / reallocation The 2023 ACFR-related findings show the Commonwealth was still describing its fiscal strategy as relying in part on federal pandemic-era funding and special funds. The 2023 long-term financial planning language stated that the Commonwealth continued to improve the General Fund “largely by maximizing the use of federal funding opportunities provided through the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA)” and continued use of other special funds. Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf | Page 9`. By 2025, the findings indicate remaining ARPA/COVID-related balances were more limited and being redirected. Act 54 of 2024 provided for reallocation of unexpended, uncommitted, and unencumbered ARPA funds appropriated from the COVID-19 Response Restricted Account to be used by the Department of Corrections. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf | Page 10`. The 2025 ACFR-related findings also state that the Commonwealth had received **$7.291 billion** of federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund monies under ARPA and that, at June 30, 2025, unspent SFR funds comprised **$216 million of unearned revenue**, down **$308 million** from the prior year. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf | Page 34`. ### 4) Education pandemic grants expired by 2025 In 2024, the findings noted that amounts owed to the Department of Education from the federal government increased due to COVID expenditures associated with ESSER and GEER programs, which were set to expire in fall 2024. Source: `june-30-2024_acfr.pdf | Page 28`. In 2025, the findings state that a **$845 million decrease** was attributed to amounts owed to the Pennsylvania Department of Education from the federal government for COVID expenditures that did not occur because the ESSER and GEER grants expired in fall 2024. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf | Page 28`. ### 5) Budget stabilization / Rainy Day Fund transfers continued, but operating results weakened In 2023, General Fund revenues exceeded expenditures by **$2.627 billion**, resulting in a partial transfer of surplus, after prior-year lapses, to the Budget Stabilization Fund of **$898 million**. Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf | Page 9`. In 2025, the findings state that **$737 million** was again transferred into the Rainy Day Fund Pool for budget stabilization according to the Fiscal Code. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf | Page 33`. ## Analyst interpretation Credit direction appears weaker between 2023 and 2025. The primary change is not revenue weakness—reported revenue was higher in 2025 than in 2023—but expenditure growth outpaced revenue growth, producing a shift from surplus to deficit and a meaningful drawdown of General Fund balance. The Commonwealth also appears to have moved from a period where pandemic-era federal funding was still supporting fiscal strategy to a period where those funds were expiring, declining, or being reallocated. That reduces budget flexibility relative to 2023, particularly as the latest-year adjusted recurring result is a deficit. Conservatively, this supports a **Watch** posture rather than a Buy conclusion until the analyst reconciles the budgetary-basis extraction to the audited GAAP governmental fund statements and evaluates whether FY2025 spending levels are structurally recurring.

Q: Should the company consider it for review in the future? A: **Short answer: Yes — it should remain a candidate for future review/monitoring.** I would not treat the current file as clean enough for an unqualified “Buy” view without updated analyst work. ## Source-supported facts - The MuniMetrics review already classifies the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania GO bond review as **“Watch”**, with **analyst review required** and a total score of **64**. The stated reason is that the preliminary score or unresolved data items support monitoring before a Buy decision. - Budgetary-basis General Fund results in the MuniMetrics annual trend data show a weakening recent trajectory: - FY2021: implied surplus of **$5.117 billion**. - FY2022: implied surplus of **$7.363 billion**. - FY2023: implied surplus of **$2.627 billion**. - FY2024: implied deficit of **$1.378 billion**. - FY2025: implied deficit of **$3.666 billion**. - General Fund balance/reserve measures in the trend data declined from **$8.085 billion in FY2023** to **$6.632 billion in FY2024** and **$4.156 billion in FY2025**. - The MuniMetrics data flags the latest-year adjusted recurring result as a deficit and also flags possible temporary funding use. - The ACFR-related temporary-funding findings indicate continued relevance of federal pandemic or one-time resources: - FY2023 ACFR language states the Commonwealth was “maximizing the use of federal funding opportunities” from CARES Act and ARPA and using other special funds for critical program and administrative needs. (june-30-2023-acfr.pdf | Page 9) - FY2024 ACFR findings cite State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds with broad discretion, including mitigation of revenue losses. (june-30-2024_acfr.pdf | Page 47) - FY2025 ACFR findings state that ARPA provided **$7.291 billion** of SLFRF to the Commonwealth. (june-30-2025_acfr.pdf | Page 173) - FY2025 ACFR findings also note reallocation of unexpended ARPA/COVID-19 restricted account funds for use by the Department of Corrections. (june-30-2025_acfr.pdf | Page 10) - FY2025 ACFR findings note certain COVID education grants, including ESSER and GEER, expired in fall 2024. (june-30-2025_acfr.pdf | Page 28) ## Analyst interpretation The credit remains review-worthy because the Commonwealth’s GO credit benefits from broad state-level resources, but the recent operating trend is less favorable: two consecutive budgetary-basis deficits, declining General Fund balance, and ongoing references to federal or special-fund support create uncertainty around structural balance. The presence of temporary-funding indicators does not by itself prove material ongoing dependence, but it warrants reconciliation against audited GAAP governmental fund statements and budget documents before any more favorable recommendation. **Recommendation:** Keep on **Watch / future review list**. Reassess after confirming FY2025 audited figures, current-year budget performance, reserve policy, use or expiration of ARPA/SLFRF balances, and updated debt-service/debt-burden information.

Q: How does it compare to the state of New Jersey? A: Web search is disabled for this MuniMetrics deployment. Set MUNIMETRICS_ENABLE_WEB_SEARCH=1 in the Python app environment and restart the app to enable it. Use Review Sources Only for document-grounded answers.

Q: Should we consider this a buy? A: ## Recommendation: **No — I would not move this to “Buy” on the current package. Maintain “Watch.”** ### Source-supported facts - **MuniMetrics recommendation is “Watch,” with analyst review required.** The review score is **64**, and the stated reason is that the preliminary score or unresolved data items support monitoring before a Buy decision. - The credit is a **Commonwealth of Pennsylvania General Obligation** bond issue, which is structurally positive relative to weaker appropriation or conduit pledges, but the uploaded data provided here does not include detailed GO pledge language or the preliminary official statement text sufficient to evaluate all legal protections. - The five-year General Fund trend shows a clear weakening in recent budgetary-basis results: - FY2021: revenue **$93.885B**, expenditures **$88.768B**, implied surplus **$5.117B**. - FY2022: revenue **$108.013B**, expenditures **$100.650B**, implied surplus **$7.363B**. - FY2023: revenue **$93.791B**, expenditures **$91.164B**, implied surplus **$2.627B**. - FY2024: revenue **$93.003B**, expenditures **$94.381B**, implied deficit **$1.378B**. - FY2025: revenue **$98.312B**, expenditures **$101.978B**, implied deficit **$3.666B**. - Reported General Fund balance declined materially after FY2023: - FY2023: **$8.085B** - FY2024: **$6.632B** - FY2025: **$4.156B** - The FY2025 deficit is approximately **3.7% of FY2025 revenue**, and year-end General Fund balance is approximately **4.1% of FY2025 expenditures**, based on the MuniMetrics extracted trend data. - The extracted trend data itself includes a caution that the amounts were derived from budgetary-basis General Fund language and that the analyst should reconcile budgetary basis against GAAP governmental fund statements before final approval. - Temporary / non-recurring federal funding references remain a credit-monitoring issue: - FY2023 ACFR: the Commonwealth stated that it continued to strengthen the General Fund largely by maximizing federal funding opportunities provided through the **CARES Act** and **American Rescue Plan Act / ARPA**, and by using other special funds for critical program and administrative needs. (june-30-2023-acfr.pdf, p. 9) - FY2024 ACFR: the Commonwealth referenced maximizing federal funding opportunities from **IIJA, IRA, and remaining ARPA funds**, while also using other special funds for critical program and administrative needs. (june-30-2024_acfr.pdf, p. 10) - FY2025 ACFR: Act 54 of 2024 reallocated unexpended, uncommitted, and unencumbered ARPA-related funds from the COVID-19 Response Restricted Account for use by the Department of Corrections. (june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 10) - FY2025 ACFR: the Commonwealth received **$7.291B** of federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund money under ARPA, with unspent SFR funds declining to **$216M** of unearned revenue at June 30, 2025. (june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 34) - FY2025 ACFR: COVID-related ESSER and GEER grants expired in fall 2024. (june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 28) ### Analyst interpretation I would **not classify this as a Buy today**. The GO pledge and state-level credit profile are important positives, but the provided data show **two consecutive years of General Fund operating deficits**, a **sharp drawdown in available General Fund balance**, and continuing evidence that recent budget management has relied in part on federal pandemic-era or other non-recurring resources. Those factors argue for continued monitoring rather than immediate purchase approval. The most concerning near-term trend is that the Commonwealth moved from sizeable surpluses in FY2021–FY2023 to deficits in FY2024 and FY2025, while General Fund balance fell from **$8.085B** in FY2023 to **$4.156B** in FY2025. That is still a meaningful nominal balance, but the pace of decline is a negative credit signal if not stabilized. ### What would be needed to revisit a Buy I would want to see, at minimum: 1. Reconciliation of the MuniMetrics budgetary-basis figures to the audited GAAP governmental fund statements. 2. Confirmation of the enacted FY2026 budget plan and whether it structurally closes the recurring gap without further reserve drawdown or one-time federal resources. 3. Updated debt service schedule, GO debt ratios, pension/OPEB funding trajectory, and legal pledge details from the official statement. 4. Evidence that FY2026 year-to-date revenues and expenditures are tracking near balance. ### Bottom line **Recommendation: Maintain Watch / Do not buy yet.** The credit may ultimately be acceptable for purchase depending on pricing, maturity, and full GO legal/security review, but the uploaded data do **not** support a clean Buy recommendation at this time.

Q: What does the annual trends show for this issuer? A: ## Annual trend summary — Commonwealth of Pennsylvania GO ### Source-supported facts **Data basis / caveat:** The MuniMetrics annual trend rows are AI-extracted from the Commonwealth’s ACFRs on a **budgetary-basis General Fund** basis and are marked “analyst review required.” The notes state that amounts were reported in millions in the ACFRs and converted to dollars, and that analysts should reconcile budgetary-basis results against GAAP governmental fund statements before final approval. The uploaded ACFR text confirms these are Commonwealth ACFRs for fiscal years 2021–2025, with the financial statements and budgetary comparison schedules included in each report’s table of contents, e.g., FY2025 Budgetary Comparison Schedule—General Fund listed at page 209 and Statement of Revenues, Expenditures, and Changes in Fund Balances at page 58. **(FY2025 ACFR, pp. 4; FY2024 ACFR, pp. 4; FY2023 ACFR, pp. 4; FY2021 ACFR, pp. 4)** ### Five-year General Fund trend from MuniMetrics rows | Fiscal year | Revenue | Expenses | Surplus / deficit | Year-end fund balance / unrestricted reserves | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2021 | $93.885B | $88.768B | **+$5.117B** | $0.000B | | 2022 | $108.013B | $100.650B | **+$7.363B** | $5.537B | | 2023 | $93.791B | $91.164B | **+$2.627B** | $8.085B | | 2024 | $93.003B | $94.381B | **–$1.378B** | $6.632B | | 2025 | $98.312B | $101.978B | **–$3.666B** | $4.156B | ### What the trend shows **1. Operating results weakened materially after FY2022–FY2023.** The Commonwealth posted budgetary-basis General Fund surpluses in FY2021, FY2022, and FY2023, but shifted to deficits in FY2024 and FY2025. The latest-year adjusted recurring result is a **$3.666 billion deficit**, following a **$1.378 billion deficit** in FY2024. **2. Revenue has been volatile and has not kept pace with recent expense growth.** Revenue peaked at **$108.013 billion in FY2022**, fell to about **$93–94 billion in FY2023–FY2024**, and recovered to **$98.312 billion in FY2025**. However, FY2025 expenses rose to **$101.978 billion**, exceeding revenue and producing the largest deficit in the five-year data set. **3. Reserves improved through FY2023, then declined for two consecutive years.** Fund balance / unrestricted reserves increased to **$8.085 billion in FY2023**, then declined to **$6.632 billion in FY2024** and **$4.156 billion in FY2025**. This indicates that recent budgetary deficits have begun to draw down the financial cushion accumulated in earlier years. **4. The data rows show no quantified temporary funding in the annual trend table, but source findings identify temporary federal and special-fund support references.** The MuniMetrics annual rows list temporary funding as **$0** for each year. However, the review also flags several temporary or nonrecurring funding references requiring analyst review, including: - FY2023 ACFR language stating the Commonwealth improved General Fund strength largely by maximizing federal funding opportunities through the **CARES Act and ARPA**, and using other special funds for program and administrative needs. **(FY2023 ACFR, p. 9)** - FY2024 ACFR language referencing remaining ARPA funds, IIJA, IRA, and other special funds. **(FY2024 ACFR, p. 10)** - FY2025 ACFR language noting reallocation of unexpended ARPA funds to the Department of Corrections. **(FY2025 ACFR, p. 10)** - FY2025 ACFR disclosure that COVID-related ESSER and GEER grants expired in fall 2024. **(FY2025 ACFR, p. 28)** - FY2025 ACFR reference to federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund monies provided under ARPA and remaining unspent SFR funds. **(FY2025 ACFR, p. 34)** ## Analyst interpretation The annual trend is **mixed-to-negative** for credit monitoring. Pennsylvania retains a meaningful reserve position, but the direction of travel has weakened: recurring budgetary results moved from sizable surpluses to back-to-back deficits, and reserves have fallen from the FY2023 peak. The FY2025 deficit despite a revenue rebound suggests expenditure pressure is outpacing recurring revenue growth. Given the unresolved temporary-funding references and the fact that the extracted annual data are not analyst-approved, a **Watch** posture is conservative and consistent with the MuniMetrics recommendation. Key follow-up items would be reconciliation to audited GAAP fund statements, confirmation of recurring versus nonrecurring revenues, and review of whether FY2026 budget actions stabilize the General Fund without further reserve depletion.

Q: Is Paula Abdul still on American Idol? A: **Source-supported facts:** - The uploaded/imported materials are Commonwealth of Pennsylvania ACFRs and related municipal bond review materials, including fiscal-year 2021–2025 ACFR pages and a 2026 GO bond review context. The visible document text identifies these as Pennsylvania financial reports prepared by the Governor’s Office of the Budget, not entertainment or television-industry sources. For example, the 2025 ACFR title page states it is the “Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Annual Comprehensive Financial Report For the Fiscal Year Ended June 30, 2025” (2025 ACFR, p. 3), and the tables of contents list governmental financial statements and statistical schedules, not American Idol-related content (2025 ACFR, pp. 4–6). **Answer:** The provided MuniMetrics review data and uploaded Pennsylvania bond/ACFR source text do **not** contain information about Paula Abdul or *American Idol*. Therefore, based only on the supplied sources, I **cannot determine** whether Paula Abdul is still on *American Idol*. **Analyst interpretation:** This question appears unrelated to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania GO credit review materials provided.

Q: Does Paula Abdul do this kind of work? A: **Source-supported facts** - The uploaded Pennsylvania ACFR excerpts identify the reports as prepared by the Commonwealth’s **Office of the Budget** and list Commonwealth officials such as the Secretary and accounting/comptroller leadership, not Paula Abdul. Examples: - FY2023 ACFR: prepared by Office of the Budget; Uri Monson, Secretary; Brian Lyman, CPA, Chief Accounting Officer. (june-30-2023-acfr.pdf, p. 3) - FY2024 ACFR: prepared by Office of the Budget; Uri Monson, Secretary; John Kaschak, CPA, Deputy Secretary for Comptroller Operations. (june-30-2024_acfr.pdf, p. 3) - FY2025 ACFR: prepared by Office of the Budget; Zachary Reber, Secretary; John Kaschak, CPA, Deputy Secretary for Comptroller Operations. (june-30-2025_acfr.pdf, p. 3) **Analyst interpretation** There is **no support in the provided MuniMetrics review data or uploaded document text** that Paula Abdul performs municipal bond credit analysis, prepares Commonwealth financial disclosures, or is involved in this Pennsylvania GO bond review. Based solely on the provided sources, I cannot conclude that Paula Abdul “does this kind of work.”

Q: Which temporary funding findings require analyst review? A: ## Source-supported facts — findings requiring analyst review Based on the MuniMetrics temporary/artificial funding findings, the items **explicitly classified as “Unclear / Analyst Review Required”** are: | ID | Term | Finding summary | Classification / risk | Source | |---:|---|---|---|---| | 189 | Fiscal recovery funds | CFA had a **$718 increase in cash** due to transfers from the Local Share and State Fiscal Recovery funds. | Unclear / Analyst Review Required; Medium risk; Medium confidence | `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 28 | | 188 | Budget stabilization | FY2023 General Fund revenues exceeded expenditures by $2.627 billion, with a partial transfer of surplus, after prior-year lapses, to the Budget Stabilization Fund of **$898**. | Unclear / Analyst Review Required; Medium risk; Medium confidence | `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 9 | | 185 | Federal grant | Lottery revenues include lottery ticket sales, interest, unclaimed prize monies, and **federal grants**. | Unclear / Analyst Review Required; Medium risk; Medium confidence | `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 79 | | 176 | Budget stabilization | After accounting for the prior year’s remaining surplus, **$737 was transferred to the Budget Stabilization Fund**. | Unclear / Analyst Review Required; Medium risk; Medium confidence | `june-30-2024_acfr.pdf`, Page 9 | | 173 | Federal grant | Federal grants collected in advance increased by **$190**, largely including **$176** for abandoned coal mine reclamation projects administered by DEP. | Unclear / Analyst Review Required; Medium risk; Medium confidence | `june-30-2024_acfr.pdf`, Page 34 | | 164 | Budget stabilization | **$737 was transferred into the Rainy Day Fund Pool** for budget stabilization under the Fiscal Code. | Unclear / Analyst Review Required; Medium risk; Medium confidence | `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`, Page 33 | ## Additional high-risk findings that should be reviewed The review data also flags **high-risk temporary/artificial funding references**, all with `analyst_approved = 0`. These are not labeled “Unclear / Analyst Review Required,” but the system red flag states that a **high-risk temporary funding reference requires analyst review**. | ID | Term | Finding summary | Classification / risk | Source | |---:|---|---|---|---| | 187 | Reimbursement | Internal service funds operate on a cost-reimbursement basis, primarily benefiting other Commonwealth funds, departments, or agencies. | Reimbursement Funding; **High risk**; Medium confidence | `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 25 | | 175 | Reimbursement | Same internal service fund cost-reimbursement language. | Reimbursement Funding; **High risk**; Medium confidence | `june-30-2024_acfr.pdf`, Page 25 | | 163 | Reimbursement | Same internal service fund cost-reimbursement language. | Reimbursement Funding; **High risk**; Medium confidence | `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`, Page 25 | | 178 | COVID | Department of Human Services had an increase in COVID funding related to medical assistance, partially offset by SNAP decreases as COVID emergency benefits ended. | Operating Support; **High risk**; High confidence | `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 31 | ## Analyst interpretation The clearest required-review items are the six findings classified as **“

Q: What changed between 2023 and 2025? A: ## Short answer Between fiscal 2023 and fiscal 2025, Pennsylvania’s General Fund trend weakened materially in the MuniMetrics extraction: the Commonwealth moved from a budgetary-basis surplus in 2023 to a larger deficit in 2025, while reported General Fund balance / unrestricted reserves declined by nearly half. At the same time, pandemic-era federal funding references shifted from broad use of CARES / ARPA and COVID-related support in 2023 to remaining / reallocated ARPA balances and expired ESSER / GEER education grants by 2025. --- ## Source-supported facts ### 1. Operating results deteriorated from surplus to deficit MuniMetrics annual trend data show: | Fiscal year | Revenue collections | Appropriation authorizations / expenditures | Implied adjusted result | Year-end General Fund balance / unrestricted reserves | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 2023 | $93.791 billion | $91.164 billion | **+$2.627 billion** | **$8.085 billion** | | 2024 | $93.003 billion | $94.381 billion | **-$1.378 billion** | **$6.632 billion** | | 2025 | $98.312 billion | $101.978 billion | **-$3.666 billion** | **$4.156 billion** | Source: MuniMetrics annual trend rows, AI-extracted from `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, `june-30-2024_acfr.pdf`, and `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`; the underlying ACFRs are identified as the Commonwealth’s Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports for fiscal years ended June 30, 2023, 2024, and 2025 on their title / introductory pages. See 2023 ACFR p. 3; 2024 ACFR p. 3; 2025 ACFR p. 3. Key changes from 2023 to 2025: - Revenue increased by **$4.521 billion**, from $93.791 billion to $98.312 billion. - Expenditures increased by **$10.814 billion**, from $91.164 billion to $101.978 billion. - The operating result declined by **$6.293 billion**, from a **$2.627 billion surplus** to a **$3.666 billion deficit**. - General Fund balance / unrestricted reserves declined by **$3.929 billion**, from **$8.085 billion** to **$4.156 billion**. ### 2. Reserve position declined meaningfully The extracted year-end General Fund balance / unrestricted reserve figure fell: - 2023: **$8.085 billion** - 2024: **$6.632 billion** - 2025: **$4.156 billion** This represents a decline of about **49%** from 2023 to 2025 based on the MuniMetrics annual trend rows. ### 3. Pandemic-era and other temporary funding references evolved In 2023, the ACFR discussion cited the Commonwealth’s use of federal pandemic-related opportunities and other special funds. The temporary funding findings quote the 2023 ACFR as stating that the Commonwealth continued to improve General Fund strength “largely by maximizing the use of federal funding opportunities provided through the CARES Act and the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and continued utilization of other special funds to meet critical program and administrative needs.” Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, p. 9. The 2023 findings also note that the Commonwealth had received **$7.291 billion** of federal Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund monies under ARPA. Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, p. 34. By 2025, the temporary funding references appear more focused on remaining or reallocated balances: - Act 54 of 2024 provided for reallocation of unexpended, uncommitted, and unencumbered ARPA-related funds from the COVID-19 Response Restricted Account to be used by the Department of Corrections. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`, p. 10. - At June 30, 2025, unspent SFR funds were **$216 million** of unearned revenue, down **$308 million** from the prior year. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`, p. 34. - The 2025 ACFR finding states that a **$845 million decrease** was attributed to payments owed to the Department of Education from the federal government for COVID expenditures that did not occur because ESSER and GEER grants expired in fall 2024. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`, p. 28. ### 4. Budget stabilization / rainy day transfers are still referenced The 2023 finding states that General Fund revenues exceeded expenditures by $2.627 billion and that, after prior-year lapses, part of the surplus was transferred to the Budget Stabilization Fund in the amount of **$898 million**. Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, p. 9. The 2025 finding states that **$737 million** was again transferred into the Rainy Day Fund Pool for budget stabilization under the Fiscal Code. Source: `june-30-2025_acfr.pdf`, p. 33. --- ## Analyst interpretation Credit trend from 2023 to 2025 appears weaker. The key change is not that revenues fell—revenues were higher in 2025 than in 2023—but that expenditures grew much faster than revenues, resulting in a shift from surplus to deficit and a sizable drawdown in General Fund balance. The reserve decline is notable for a GO credit because the extracted General Fund balance / unrestricted reserve measure fell from $8.1 billion to $4.2 billion over two years. While the remaining balance is still positive, the direction of travel is unfavorable and supports continued monitoring. Temporary federal support risk appears to have changed in character. In 2023, the ACFR language

Q: What funding sources for 2023? A: ## FY2023 funding sources identified in the provided MuniMetrics / ACFR data ### Source-supported facts **General Fund / budgetary-basis funding** - MuniMetrics’ FY2023 annual trend row shows **General Fund revenue collections of $93.791 billion** and **appropriation authorizations/expenditures of $91.164 billion**, producing an implied **$2.627 billion surplus** and **$8.085 billion year-end General Fund balance**. - The same row classifies **recurring revenue as $93.791 billion** and **temporary funding as $0** in the extracted trend data. *Source: MuniMetrics Annual Trend Row for FY2023; extracted from `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`.* **Federal pandemic / temporary funding references** - The FY2023 ACFR states the Commonwealth sought to strengthen the General Fund “largely by maximizing the use of federal funding opportunities provided through the **CARES Act** and the **American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA)**,” and by continuing to use **other special funds** for critical program and administrative needs. *Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 9.* - The ACFR notes that in May 2021 the Commonwealth received **$7,291** of federal **Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Fund** monies provided under ARPA. *Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 34.* - The Department of Human Services had an increase in **COVID funding** related to the medical assistance program, partially offset by lower SNAP funding as COVID emergency benefits ended. *Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 31.* - The Department of Education experienced a **$689 decrease in federal funding** for **ESSER, GEER, IDEA, and others**. *Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 32.* **Other identified funding / transfers** - The Commonwealth transferred **$898** of surplus, after prior-year lapses, to the **Budget Stabilization Fund** during FY2023. *Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 9.* - The Commonwealth Financing Authority had a **$718 increase in cash** due to transfers from the **Local Share** and **State Fiscal Recovery funds**. *Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 28.* - Lottery fund revenues were described as coming from **lottery ticket sales, interest on securities and deposits, unclaimed prize monies, and federal grants**. *Source: `june-30-2023-acfr.pdf`, Page 79.* ### Analyst interpretation For FY2023, the primary quantified operating source in the MuniMetrics trend data is **General Fund revenue collections of $93.791 billion**, with no temporary funding amount booked in the trend row. However, the ACFR text indicates the Commonwealth’s fiscal strategy still relied in part on **federal pandemic-related resources** — CARES, ARPA, Coronavirus State Fiscal Recovery Funds, COVID medical assistance funding, ESSER/GEER/IDEA — and **other special funds**. From a conservative credit perspective, these references warrant monitoring because several sources appear **non-recurring or temporary**, even though the MuniMetrics trend row does not quantify them as temporary funding for FY2023.

Q: What funding sources for 2023? A: AI Q&A failed: No item with that key

Q: What funding sources for 2023? A: AI Q&A failed: No item with that key

Q: What funding sources for 2023? A: AI Q&A failed: No item with that key

Q: What funding sources for 2023? A: AI Q&A failed: No item with that key

Q: What funding sources for 2023? A: AI Q&A failed: No item with that key

Q: What funding sources for 2023? A: AI Q&A failed: No item with that key